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Ouch. On one hand, Australia's long-running campaign to host the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the rights to host the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

The result will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to succeed. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the government was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests Albanese has viewed UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. But there is another way to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. The details of the deal had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could fall over before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the Australian bid.

But, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turks with some cover.

The Turkish president is seen as aligned with Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a conference hindered from the top if his government managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an underprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for increasing carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This matters. Although certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "chief negotiator", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the federal administration do to stop a restriction on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement looking like the best chance available to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.