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Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray regarding the American military actions on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “run” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday saw its premier large-scale offensive on South American land. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” the President stated.

The decision to unilaterally attack another state and abduct its leader – mere days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and dismissed conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other factions of the headless administration are considerably more radical.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who won power promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is converting it into a renegade nation.

He is convinced that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He promises that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this most recent venture “will be financially free”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came absent any United Nations mandate or congressional approval; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.

Put aside the message this sends to global powers like Russia and China, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will surely embolden further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the justification that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been shockingly muted. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could still pressure him to focus on domestic issues once more – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and ongoing controversies fuel his desire for external drama.

We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. Other governments may come to rue the day if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.