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Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."