Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.
Significant Obstacles in the Selection Process
A number of figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.
